Summary

Michael Manolakis

I use spatial econometrics and computational methods to measure how land-use regulation shapes the economy—the costs hidden in the way we zone, value, and build on land. I am a Master's candidate in Economics at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, completing my thesis, after earning my B.A. in Quantitative Economics through the same Bachelor's-and-Master's (BAM) program. My work spans spatial econometrics, urban economics, and computational methods, driven by a central aim: to bring rigorous data science to the regulatory and economic systems that shape our built environment.

My quantitative work is deeply informed by a broad foundation in the liberal arts. I believe that economic models are most powerful when they account for the human context—the historical policies, legal frameworks, and behavioral dimensions that drive decision-making. Whether I am analyzing the macroeconomic impact of municipal zoning laws or designing behavioral lab experiments, this interdisciplinary lens allows me to move beyond the numbers to ask nuanced, policy-relevant questions.

As an aspiring researcher, my goal is to pursue a Pre-Doctoral Fellowship followed by a Ph.D. in Economics. My current research lies at the intersection of applied microeconomics, spatial data science, and behavioral game theory. This website serves as a living portfolio of my academic projects, computational pipelines, and professional journey.

Technical Stack & Methodologies:

  • Languages & Tools: Python, R, Julia, LaTeX, and Git.
  • Econometrics & Spatial Analysis: Spatial econometrics (GIS, OpenStreetMap, Cadastral mapping), Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE), LightGBM, and Rubin's Rules pooling.
  • AI & Infrastructure: Training and fine-tuning small (sub-1B parameter) language models for behavioral economics research. Managing locally-hosted, high-performance Linux server environments to ensure data privacy and open-source accessibility.

History

Education & Background

  • University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
    • M.A. in Economics (expected May 2026) - Gone Golfing
    • B.A. in Quantitative Economics, Cum Laude (May 2025)
  • Professional Licensing
    • Certified Residential Appraiser, State of Hawaiʻi (2023 – Dec 2025)
    • Licensed Real Estate Appraiser, State of Hawaiʻi (2020 – 2023)
  • Past Research & Goals
    • Strategic Behavior in Political Economics (Paused)

      An experimental study design focusing on game theory and strategic behavior within political economy frameworks.

    • Future Trajectory: Seeking a Pre-Doctoral Research Fellowship to leverage my spatial data science and econometric skills, with the ultimate goal of pursuing a Ph.D. in Economics.

Leadership & Teaching

  • Teaching Assistant (Sept 2025 – Aug 2026)
    • Principles of Microeconomics (ECON 130)
      • Mentored students during flexible office hours, clarifying complex microeconomic concepts.
      • Presented course material and led review sessions to prepare students for examinations.
      • Assisted the professor with grading to ensure fair and consistent evaluation.
  • Mānoa Economics Association (MEA)
    • President (Fall 2025 – Spring 2026)
      • Vice President (Spring 2025) · Treasurer (Fall 2024)
    • Developed and promoted a club mission to broaden undergraduates' understanding of economics beyond finance.
    • Established and managed a guest speaker series to illuminate career paths and research areas.
    • Served as the primary representative for the organization, growing student engagement.
    • Managed the club's budget and secured operational funding through the university's RIO system.

Global Experience

  • Selected Participant, International HPC Summer School (IHPCSS) 2026
    • ACCESS, Perth, Australia (July 2026)
      • Selected for a highly competitive, international program focused on advanced computational methodologies and resource optimization.
      • Will apply high-performance computing techniques to scale multi-language econometric pipelines and heavy geospatial data processing.
      • Will collaborate with a global cohort of researchers to bridge advanced data science with applied microeconomic modeling.

Completed Work

Master's Thesis: Gone Golfing

The Unrealized Value of America's Golf Courses

Thesis Posted

This thesis quantifies the macroeconomic inefficiency of recreational land allocation, estimating the aggregate opportunity cost of 16,297 U.S. golf courses against their Highest and Best Use (HBU) counterfactuals.

Interactive: The Opportunity-Cost Cascade

Step through how the $941B headline narrows under developer economics and zoning — and see the Preservation Paradox that locks most of it away.

Key Methodologies & Findings

  • Tri-Language Pipeline: Reproducible spatial models in Python, R, and Julia.
  • Advanced Imputation: Resolved missing acreage data via LightGBM-backed MICE.
  • Macro Findings: Identified $941 billion gross national opportunity cost.
  • Micro Validation: Parcel-level Honolulu cadastral analysis yielding $26.61B aggregate.
  • Policy Impact: "Preservation Paradox" restricts 81.7% of Oahu's golf land.

Ongoing Work

Publication of The Ostrich Effect

I'm preparing the thesis for submission to peer-reviewed journals, extending the analysis beyond the thesis scope for the journal version. A working-paper draft and download link will be posted in this section.

Applied AI in Behavioral Economics

I'm training and fine-tuning sub-1B-parameter language models on local hardware, exploring whether small, efficient models can predict and analyze participant behavior in economic lab experiments. This July I'll extend that work at the International HPC Summer School (IHPCSS) 2026 — training in GPU optimization and high-performance computing to scale both the model training and the geospatial pipelines behind it.

The Ostrich Effect

A $941 billion number that shrinks when you look at it

The headline is easy to quote and easy to misread. Step through what happens to it once real-world constraints are applied — developer economics, then the law itself.

Q

What we actually measured · Oahu

The Preservation Paradox

Of Oahu’s $26.61B in golf-land opportunity cost, this is where the law lets it go — and where it doesn’t.

  • $21.7B Preservation / Federal — housing prohibited
  • $3.7B Agriculture — possible with a zoning amendment
  • $1.2B Resort / Residential — buildable today

If a jurisdiction will allow eighteen holes of irrigation and fertilizer on land it calls “Preservation,” the label has stopped protecting ecology. It is protecting an incumbent.

The finding isn’t the $941B. It’s the distance between it and the sliver — the opportunity cost we’ve zoned ourselves into ignoring.

Where the $941B concentrates

Opportunity cost isn’t spread evenly across the map. A handful of coastal markets carry most of it.

Maps & figures from the paper

The visuals behind the analysis, drawn straight from the thesis.

About

Michael Manolakis

My professional and academic journey is built on a dual foundation: rigorous quantitative training in economics and a deep curiosity about the human systems that shape our world.

My path to economics was not linear. It began with a broad exploration of the liberal arts—from astronomy and physics to sociology and history. This foundation instilled in me an interdisciplinary perspective and a conviction that the most pressing economic challenges cannot be understood through a single lens. Today, as a graduate student in the Quantitative Economics BAM program at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, I bring this holistic viewpoint to my work, seeking to understand the human and institutional stories behind the data.

This belief in bridging theory and practice is deeply reflected in my professional background. As a former State-Certified Appraiser in Hawaiʻi, I gained years of hands-on experience in market analysis, zoning regulations, and property valuation. That role served as a real-world laboratory, grounding my academic models—such as my thesis on the macroeconomic opportunity cost of land use—in the tangible, legal, and spatial factors that drive economic behavior.

Beyond my academic and professional work, I am passionate about building community. As President of the Mānoa Economics Association, I focused on demystifying our field for undergraduates, showing them that economics is not just about finance, but a powerful tool for understanding efficiency, policy, and real-world impact. This leadership experience solidified my commitment to fostering inclusive and collaborative environments.

My goal is to pursue a Pre-Doctoral Fellowship and ultimately a Ph.D. in Economics, where I can continue to explore complex questions at the intersection of spatial econometrics, policy, and strategic behavior. I am driven to contribute to research that is analytically rigorous, ethically grounded, and socially conscious.

Technical Philosophy

As my research becomes increasingly computationally intensive—from building tri-language spatial data pipelines to training small language models for behavioral game theory simulations—I am equally committed to the ethics of the tools I use. I strongly advocate for open-source software and sustainable, repairable hardware. In an era where electronic waste is a critical ecological issue, I believe academic research should be powered by systems designed for longevity, modularity, and data privacy, rather than disposable, sealed-box computing.

Thank you for visiting my site.

The Bases

All your base are belong to us